Scenario Planning

Course manual 2020/2021

Course content

Whereas scenario development can help to envision alternative futures, scenario planning can help illuminate the different ways in which things might be done to achieve the preferred, desired future. Or to prevent a worst case scenario from actually happening! Complexity-based scenarios provide a rational framework for thinking about and mapping out possible futures. A framework that is not based on simplistic determinism but rather is explicitly founded on reflexive social action. While such scenarios break with modernity’s outdated idea of a manageable society, they do offer the opportunity to make rational choices by showing the condition space that defines the possible scenarios, thus enabling us to choose the preferred future we want. With that, the scenario method offers a useful tool in all scientific fields concerned with ‘wicked’ problems, including the field of spatial planning. Via backcasting, i.e. reasoning backwards (which is the opposite of prediction), the necessary actions and interventions can be designed to try to realise the future that is projected in the preferred scenario. Road maps can help to build bridges between the present and the future by translating a shared vision into concrete action strategies.

Preferably, scenarios are based on both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Simulations, for instance, can function as computationally-assisted thought-experiments on the dynamics in a particular system. Models allow us to develop insights and ideas about thresholds, tipping-points and feedback or cascade mechanisms, and thus help elucidate the emergent dynamics in the complex systems in which our ‘wicked’ problems are embedded. And interviews with stakeholders can provide important information about interests and power relations in certain institutionalized practices, which are helpful in making estimations about the likelihood that certain innovations or policy strategies will be successful or not.

In this course, students following the Future Society track and students following the Future Earth track come together to work out a well-founded, complexity-based scenario in the form of a coherent and plausible story, told in words and numbers and captured in an attractive visualization, accompanied by a realistic road map in which a co-evolutionary pathway of a certain combined human and environmental system is described.

Study materials

Literature

• • Tromp, C. 2018. Science and Futures Thinking & Vision-Based Science and Science-Based Visions, in (ibid.) Wicked Philosophy. Philosophy of Science and Vision Development for Complex Problems, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, paragraph 6.1 & 6.2 (except 6.2.3), 142-153.
• • Nekkers, J. 2016. Developing Scenarios, in: Duin, P. van der (ed.), Foresight in Organisations Methods and Tools, London: Routledge, Ch1 p. 11-39 (except paragraph on Morphological Field).
• • (Optional; Non-Compulsory) Oorschot, K. van 2016. Causal Loop Diagramming, in: Duin, P. van der (ed.), Foresight in Organisations Methods and Tools, London: Routledge, Ch16 p. 215-222.
• • Cramer, T., Duin, P. van der & Heselmans, C. 2016. Trend Analysis, in: Duin, P. van der (ed.), Foresight in Organisations Methods and Tools, London: Routledge, Ch2 p. 40-58.
• • Marchau, V., Walker, W., Bloemen, P. & Popper, S. (Eds.), 2019. Chapter 1 Introduction to: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty - From Theory to Practice, Cham: Springer, p. 1-23.
• • Mandatory and additional literature related to selected topic.

Objectives

• Becoming acquainted with futures thinking, in particular with the scenario method as basis for science-based vision development, and being able to explain its relevance in the context of 21st century spatial planning and governance issues.
• Being able to recognize and describe the main characteristics of essential concepts, phases and tools of the scenario method.
• Being able to anticipate on and evaluate the impact of future trends and innovations, while making a connection between trends in the socio-cultural domain and those in the domains of science and technology, ecology, politics, the legal arena, the economy, using the STEPLE(D) approach (D = demography), on a topic related to one of the Future Planet domains, i.e. energy, climate, quality of life, food, water.
• Thus being able to identify and define complex issues from an interdisciplinary perspective, and to critically reflect on possible (intended and unintended) consequences of social and technological innovations on our future life, specifically with regard to the chosen topic.
• Working together in interdisciplinary teams on policy analysis and policy recommendations by means of science-based future scenarios, as point of departure for more robust, sustainable governance and (spatial) planning.
• Acquire the skills to captivate the developed science-based scenarios and policy recommendations in an attractive storyline and/or visualization.

Teaching methods

• Seminar
• Self-study
• Working independently on e.g. a project or thesis
• Supervision/feedback meeting
• Lecture
• Presentation/symposium

Prior to the start of Scenario Planning, you will be informed about the topics you can work on. A list with various policy questions that Future Planet Studies alumni are actually working on (or have been working on) in their professional work fields will be made available on Canvas. You can select your favorite options and indicate your first three preferences via a Google Docs form. It is also possible to submit your preferences as a group, i.e. with other students whom you’d like to work with during the Scenario Planning course.

In the first two weeks, you will be introduced to the scenario method that will be used in the course. In various weblectures and knowledge clips, the relevance and possible uses of the method will be explained, as well as essential concepts, phases and tools of the scenario method. Your knowledge and insights in purpose and usefulness of the scenario method will be assessed in an individual assignment and will weigh heavily in the overall assessment of this assignment (see Assignment 1).

Meanwhile, in the work groups you will learn how to work with some useful tools that will help you and your team members get through the various phases of Scenario Planning. Each week, you will work on a partial assignment which together will lead you to the final Scenario Report. Most of the assignments are collectively assessed, but a part will be individually assessed (see Table 1).

Learning activities

Attendance

Programme's requirements concerning attendance (OER-B):

• Participation in fieldwork is compulsory and cannot be replaced by assignments or other courses.
• In case of practical sessions, the student is obliged to attend at least of 90% of the sessions and to prepare himself adequately, unless indicated otherwise in the course manual. In case the student attends less than 90%, the practical sessions should be redone entirely.
• In case of tutorials/seminars with assignments, the student is obliged to attend at least 7 out of 8 seminars and to prepare thoroughly for these meetings, unless indicated otherwise in the course manual. If the course has more than 8 seminars, the student can miss up to 1 extra meeting for every (part of) 8 tutorials/seminars. If the students attends less than the mandatory tutorials/seminars, the course cannot be completed.

Additional requirements for this course:

In the overall programme for Scenario Planning (available on Canvas) it is indicated what you are expected to prepare for each workgroup. Submittal of the preparatory assignments is conditional for meaningful participation in the workgroup. The preparatory assignments will not be graded separately, but are meant to support you to work steadily and reach a good end result. In the workgroups, you will receive feedback from teacher and peers, which you implement in your final report.

Not meeting the entree requirements for the workgroups, i.e. not submitting the preparatory assignments means exclusion from the workgroup and, if more than one workgroup is missed, exclusion from the course. Table 1 below together with the overall programme gives you a clear overview of all assignments. In the Assessment Form you can find the assessment criteria for both the individual assignment and group assignments, so you know exactly what to do to ensure an effective participation in the workgroups and a good final product for Scenario Planning.

Assessment

Table 2: Assessment of Scenario Planning

* This year, the expert consultation will be either in the form of an online interview or in the form of watching online documentaries, TED-lectures, or other public appearances.

** No submittal before Friday 25 June 23.59 means you can’t successfully complete the course and need to do it again next year.

Assessment diagram

Table 3: Assessment Matrix Scenario Planning – Constructive Alignment between Objectives & Assessment

Assignments

The assessment consists of three graded assignments:

1. Problem Analysis, based on a Force Field Analysis, Causal Loop Diagram and Expert Consultancy (20%, group work).
2. Scenarios, including an explanation of the purpose and use of scenario development and planning in general, and this scenario in particular (40%, individual work).
3. Scenario Report (40%, group work), consisting of a Problem Analysis, a Scenario Matrix, Worked out Scenarios, and Policy Recommendations and a Roadmap.

Besides these graded assignments, there are also three Preparatory Assignments, i.e. assignments that help you to stay on track during the various phases of the course. The Preparatory Assignment for Phase 1 is a Preliminary Problem Analysis. The Preparatory Assignment for Phase 2/3 is to design a Scenario Matrix, i.e. choice of central drivers based on a trend analysis. The Preparatory Assignment for Phase 4 consists of Policy Recommendations and a Roadmap towards a desired future scenario. Together with Assignment 1 and 2, these Preparatory Assignments result in Assignment 3: the final Scenario Report.

Next to these graded Assignment, there is Assignment 4: Reflection on the Group Process, which is not graded but which has to be completed in order to be able to finish the course successfully. Besides the teacher, the students also assess each team member’s contribution to the overall group process (see the Self & Peer Assessment Form for the Interim and Final Assessment of the collaboration). They can assign different shares to different team members, i.e. reward the team members with different grades according to the contribution they paid. If needed, the group grade will be corrected to reflect the real contribution made by individual members according to the values appointed via the Self and Peer Assessment. In case this correction diminishes the total score of an individual team member to < 5.5, the final grade will not be sufficient to pass the course. In that case, the student will consult with the teacher to see what additional work needs to be done to try and pass after a second chance.

Fraud and plagiarism

The 'Regulations governing fraud and plagiarism for UvA students' applies to this course. This will be monitored carefully. Upon suspicion of fraud or plagiarism the Examinations Board of the programme will be informed. For the 'Regulations governing fraud and plagiarism for UvA students' see: www.student.uva.nl

Course structure

Timetable

The schedule for this course is published on DataNose.

Last year's course evaluation

In order to provide students some insight how we use the feedback of student evaluations to enhance the quality of education, we decided to include the table below in all course guides.

Contact information

Coordinator

• dr. Coyan Tromp