Scenario Planning

Course manual 2024/2025

Course content

In this course, students from different backgrounds (i.e. students following the Future Society and Future Earth track, and international exchange students who take part in one of these minors or in some of the Future Planet Studies courses) come together to study and develop future scenarios for actual sustainability challenges. They work out a well-founded, complexity-based scenario in the form of a coherent and plausible story, told in words and numbers and captured in an attractive visualization, accompanied by a realistic road map in which a co-evolutionary pathway of a specific combined human and environmental system is described.

Whereas scenario development can help to envision alternative futures, scenario planning can help illuminate the different ways in which things might be done to achieve the preferred, desired future. Or to prevent a worst case scenario from actually happening! Complexity-based scenarios provide a rational framework for thinking about and mapping out possible futures. A framework that is not based on simplistic determinism but rather is explicitly founded on reflexive social action. While such scenarios break with modernity’s outdated idea of a manageable society, they do offer the opportunity to make rational choices by showing the condition space that defines the possible scenarios, thus enabling us to choose the preferred future we want. With that, the scenario method offers a useful tool in all scientific fields concerned with ‘wicked’ problems, including the field of spatial planning. Via backcasting, i.e. reasoning backwards (which is the opposite of prediction), the necessary actions and interventions can be designed to try to realise the future that is projected in the preferred scenario. Road maps can help to build bridges between the present and the future by translating a shared vision into concrete action strategies.

Preferably, scenarios are based on both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Simulations, for instance, can function as computationally-assisted thought-experiments on the dynamics in a particular system. Models allow us to develop insights and ideas about thresholds, tipping-points and feedback or cascade mechanisms, and thus help elucidate the emergent dynamics in the complex systems in which our ‘wicked’ problems are embedded. And interviews with stakeholders can provide important information about interests and power relations in certain institutionalized practices, which are helpful in making estimations about the likelihood that certain innovations or policy strategies will be successful or not.

Study materials

Literature

• Bradfield, R. 2025. Uncertainty about the Future, Ch1 Understanding the Future, p. 1-13.

  • Nekkers, J. 2016. Developing Scenarios, in: Duin, P. van der (ed.), Foresight in Organisations Methods and Tools, London: Routledge, Ch1 p. 11-39 (except paragraph on Morphological Field).
  • Chermack, T. J. 2022. Using scenarios: Scenario planning for improving organizations. Berrett-Koehler Publishers (chapter 5 Connecting scenarios to their original purpose p. 76 – 83).
  • Tromp, C. 2018. Science and Futures Thinking & Vision-Based Science and Science-Based Visions, in (ibid.) Wicked Philosophy. Philosophy of Science and Vision Development for Complex Problems, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, paragraph 6.1 & 6.2 (except 6.2.3), 142-153.
  • Matthijsen, J., Dammers, E., & Elzenga, H. 2018. The future of the North Sea: The North Sea in 2030 and 2050: a scenario study. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
  • Vitens 2021. Water for Now and in the Future: Long-Term Vision on the Vitens 2020-2050 Infrastructure, p. 4-21; 67-70.
  • WWF 2017. Scenarios for the Future of Water in South Africa, p. 11-19.
  • Boschetti, F., Price, J., & Walker, I. 2016. Myths of the future and scenario archetypes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 76-85.
  • (Optional; Non-Compulsory) Oorschot, K. van 2016. Causal Loop Diagramming, in: Duin, P. van der (ed.), Foresight in Organisations Methods and Tools, London: Routledge, Ch16 p. 215-222.
  • Marchau, V., Walker, W., Bloemen, P. & Popper, S. (Eds.), 2019. Chapter 1 Introduction to: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty - From Theory to Practice, Cham: Springer, p. 1-23.
  • Cramer, T., Duin, P. van der & Heselmans, C. 2016. Trend Analysis, in: Duin, P. van der (ed.), Foresight in Organisations Methods and Tools, London: Routledge, Ch2 p. 40-58.

Objectives

• Being able to recognize, describe and apply the main characteristics of essential concepts, phases and tools of the scenario method.
• Being able to identify and define complex issues from an interdisciplinary perspective on a topic related to one of the Future Planet domains (i.e. energy, climate, quality of life, food and/or water) by making a connection between trends in the socio-cultural domain and those in the domains of science and technology, ecology, politics, the legal arena, the economy, using the STEPLE(D) approach (D = demography).
• Being able to anticipate on and evaluate the impact of future trends and innovations.
• Being able to critically reflect on possible (intended and unintended) consequences of social and technological innovations on our future life, specifically with regard to the chosen topic.
• Working together in an interdisciplinary team on scenario development.
• Acquire the skills to captivate the developed science-based scenarios and policy recommendations in an attractive storyline and/or visualization.

Teaching methods

• Seminar
• Computer lab session/practical training
• Presentation/symposium
• Supervision/feedback meeting
• Working independently on e.g. a project or thesis

In the Scenario Planning course online and offline work forms are combined to create a stimulating learning environment. There are several explanatory knowledge clips available on Canvas that introduce you to the Scenario Method and its use in Planning to address complex sustainability challenges. Additional literature gives you further insight in these topics. What is explained in the clips and literature, will not be further addressed in the work groups, unless you still have pressing questions about certain key concepts.

Based on the evaluations of last years, we changed the set-up of the course. To stimulate face to face group work, the work groups in the Scenario Planning course now consist alternately of 2-hour and 4-hour sessions. During the latter, working on assignments will be combined with guest lectures and Q&As with experts in the field. The central aim of the work group sessions is to work together with your team and exchange the findings between teams. In the work groups, we offer active work forms to prepare you for the various steps that you need to take during Scenario Planning. We support you in making the assignments and there are ample opportunities to get feedback from your peers and teacher. We will provide you with the necessary tools to support you in that process.

The fact that during the work groups you will be provided with tools to work on your group assignments means that there is a strict attendance rule: if you’ve missed more than one work group, your attendance at work groups will be graded with NAP (Not Attended or Present). This results in exclusion from the course. If for any reason you are going to miss a work group, you must inform your work group teacher in advance by sending an e-mail to announce your anticipated absence.

 Note: Not preparing for the work groups and missing deadlines to send in assignments will lead to exclusion from the work groups. If this happens more than twice you will be excluded from the course.

The course schedule will be published and kept updated at www.datanose.nl.

Learning activities

Attendance

Programme's requirements concerning attendance (OER-B):

• Participation in fieldwork is compulsory and cannot be replaced by assignments or other courses.
• In case of practical sessions, the student is obliged to attend at least of 90% of the sessions and to prepare himself adequately, unless indicated otherwise in the course manual. In case the student attends less than 90%, the practical sessions should be redone entirely.
• In case of tutorials/seminars with assignments, the student is obliged to attend at least 7 out of 8 seminars and to prepare thoroughly for these meetings, unless indicated otherwise in the course manual. If the course has more than 8 seminars, the student can miss up to 1 extra meeting for every (part of) 8 tutorials/seminars. If the students attends less than the mandatory tutorials/seminars, the course cannot be completed.

Additional requirements for this course:

Attendance

In the overall programme for Scenario Planning (available on Canvas) it is indicated what you are expected to prepare for each workgroup. Submittal of the preparatory assignments is conditional for meaningful participation in the workgroup. The preparatory assignments will not be graded separately, but are meant to support you to work steadily and reach a good end result. In the workgroups, you will receive feedback from teacher and peers, which you implement in your final assignments and final scenario report.

Not meeting the entree requirements for the workgroups, i.e. not submitting the preparatory assignments means exclusion from the workgroup and, if more than one workgroup is missed, exclusion from the course. The Assessment Table together with the overall programme gives you a clear overview of all assignments. In the Assessment Form you can find the assessment criteria for both the individual assignment and group assignments, so you know exactly what to do to ensure an effective participation in the workgroups and a good final product for Scenario Planning.

Assessment

The assessment consists of a written exam (30%) about the characteristics of essential concepts, phases and tools of the scenario method. In addition, the exam will focus on identifying and defining complex issues and ask of students to critically reflect on possible (intended and unintended) consequences of social and technological innovations on our future life, specifically with regard to professionally written scenario reports (see compulsory literature; note that these reports are provided to consult during the exam. The other reading materials are not accessible during the exam).

Besides learning about the method, students work in groups of four towards their own scenario report on the chosen topic (see list Canvas). The preparatory assignments (ungraded, formative assignments) are tailored to cover each step towards this report, e.g. write a problem analysis, design a scenario matrix (i.e. choice of central drivers based on a trend analysis) and work on policy recommendations and a roadmap towards a desired future. Students receive peer and teacher feedback on those assignments in the workgroups. The students will defend this scenario report in an oral examination (70%), where 55% will be assigned to the group performance, and 15% to the individual contributions.

Besides the teacher, students also assess each team member’s contribution to the overall group process (see the Self & Peer Assessment Form for the Interim and Final Assessment of the collaboration). They can assign different shares to different team members, i.e. reward the team members with different grades according to the contribution they paid. If needed, the group grade will be corrected to reflect the real contribution made by individual members according to the values appointed via the Self and Peer Assessment. In case this correction diminishes the total score of an individual team member to < 5.5, the final grade will not be sufficient to pass the course. In that case, the student will consult with the teacher to see what additional work needs to be done to try and pass after a second chance.

Table 2: Assessment of Scenario Planning

Assessment diagram

Table: Assessment Matrix – Constructive Alignment between Objectives & Assessment

Assignments

All preparatory, formative assignments can be found on Canvas.

Fraud and plagiarism

The 'Regulations governing fraud and plagiarism for UvA students' applies to this course. This will be monitored carefully. Upon suspicion of fraud or plagiarism the Examinations Board of the programme will be informed. For the 'Regulations governing fraud and plagiarism for UvA students' see: www.student.uva.nl

Course structure

Additional information

We vinden het belangrijk dat je je op de UvA en bij Future Planet Studies veilig voelt. Krijg je onverhoopt te maken met ongewenst gedrag of voel je je onveilig, dan kun je terecht bij verschillende personen. Je melding wordt altijd vertrouwelijk behandeld. Kijk op onze website voor meer informatie over waar en bij wie je terecht kunt.

It is important that everyone feels safe at the UvA and Future Planet Studies. We are committed to provide social safety and we offer various forms of support for people experiencing inappropriate or unsafe situations. Consult the UvA website or Future Planet Studies Canvas page for more information and contact info.

Last year's student feedback

In order to provide students some insight how we use the feedback of student feedback to enhance the quality of education, we decided to include the table below in all course guides.

Contact information

Coordinator

• dr. Coyan Tromp

Coordinator Workgroup Teachers: Lieke Mulder (L.L.Mulder@uva.nl)