5 EC
Semester 1, period 1
5274SFFS5Y
| Owner | Master Forensic Science |
| Coordinator | prof. dr. R. Nunez Queija |
| Part of | Master Forensic Science, year 1 |
An important goal of the course is to provide students with the required knowledge of statistical and probabilistic reasoning to distinguish correct from erroneous argumentation when applied to Forensic Science. Intuitive reasoning is frequently the source of serious misconceptions that all too often have lead to wrong juridical sentences. In the course, the students will see how to recognize and avoid such mistakes through formalistic analysis.
A second goal is to provide students with a basic toolbox for statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. The course is not meant as an advanced statistics course, but we will spend considerable effort on understanding and applying statistical tests such as the standard normal test, the student-t test and – ultimately - the chi-square test.
C. Aitken, F. Taroni, S. Bozza. Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists. John Wiley And Sons Ltd., Third edition, 2021. (this is the text book for this course; there is a second edition from 2004 of this book that is less convenient but can also be used in this course)
Schneps and C. Colmez. Math on Trial. Ingram Publishers Services US, 2013. (we will use this book to learn examples of erroneous probabilistic and statistical reasoning in the court room)
The slides used in class will be available on canvas.
Exercises will be available on canvas.
For students that have difficulty with the subject, there are may additional sources available. The following are at the correct level for this course. Note that these references will NOT be used in the course and they will not be part of the examinations either. They are meant as additional material for students that struggle with the level of the course:
Introduction to Statistics - Online Edition. David M. Lane (ed.). With contributions by David Scott, Mikki Hebl, Rudy Guerra, Dan Osherson, and Heidi Zimmer
Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science. Craig Adam. Wiley, 2010.
Prior to the first lecture the course starts with an individual preparation/refresher about statistical concepts (mean, median, mode, variance, covariance, correlation, regression) and probabilistic fundamentals (probability space, axioms of probability, basic combinatorics, conditional probability).
In weeks 37-41 the theory classes with accompanying exercise classes will provide students with the required theoretical knowledge. There are also weekly question hours where more theoretical issues and more elaborate problems (like old exam problems) can be discussed.
In week 39 there will be a midterm test about the material covered in self-study and during the first two weeks.
In the second part of the course, the emphasis will be on the use of statistical estimation and hypothesis testing, using the same format of theory, exercise and question hour classes.
In parallel, the students will work in small teams on an assignment to critically analyze a number of criminal trials (each group is assigned a Chapter from the book Math on trial). The cases serve as an illustration of the impact erroneous reasoning may have on the course of justice. The focus in the assignments is to identify the correctness in using statistical and probabilistic analysis and techniques in the forensic practice. The different cases will give the student insight into a wide range of applications as well as a broad spectrum of erroneous reasoning in forensic applications, e.g., alleged murder, DNA analysis, database trawling and handwriting comparisons.
In week 42, the groups will present their work in a full-day meeting. The exam is in week 43.
|
Activity |
Hours |
Preparation |
|
Theory Lectures |
10 |
10 |
|
Exercises/Problems/Q&A |
20 |
40 |
|
Midterm & Exam |
5 |
15 |
|
Presentations |
8 |
32 |
|
Discussion board |
included above |
recommended learning tool |
|
Total |
140 |
(5 EC x 28 uur) |
This programme does not have requirements concerning attendance (OER part B).
Additional requirements for this course:
attendance (and participation) is mandatory for
- the midterm test
- the Math on Trial presentations
If a student can not be present at some of these for major reasons, if possible this must be reported to the lecturer at least one week ahead, or otherwise the lecturer needs to be contacted as soon as possible after the missed event. For the Math on Trial presentations a special arrangement (partial attendance/additional assignment) may be possible in special cases. For the midterm it will be possible to have a separate test jointly with the resit of the exam.
| Item and weight | Details |
|
Final grade | |
|
50% Final exam | Must be ≥ 5.5, Mandatory |
|
35% Grade for the group assignment | Must be ≥ 5.5, Mandatory |
|
15% Midterm test | Must be ≥ 5.5, Mandatory |
The components will be weighted as follows:
All components will be graded on a scale from 1 to 10, with a maximum of one decimal after the point. These grades are used to calculate the final grade. In order to pass the course, each of the three components (midterm test, Math on Trial, and final exam) must be sufficient, i.e. at least a five and a half. When a student has not fulfilled this requirement, the examiner will register the mark ‘did not fulfil all requirements’ (NAV) whether or not the averaged grade is sufficient.
Resit
There is one single resit to make up for possible insufficient grades for the midterm test and the final exam. As is usual in the program MFS, at the resit you can choose to do a resit for the final exam only, in case you already passed the midterm test (grade at least 5.5). Those who take the resit for the midterm and the final exam, must answer additional questions.
Change in format
Note: the formats of the midterm test, the final exam and the resit are as those of previous tests/exams since the academic year 2018-2019. Exams of earlier years are very suitable as exercise material, but differ in their formats (e.g., there was no midterm test prior to 2018 and there was no text book for use at the exams).
Attendance
Attendance is mandatory, unless there are strong reasons to miss a class. To get permission to miss a class you need to request it well in time (at least one week ahead). On September 29, we will have the midterm test in class. No exception can be made for that.
The final grade will be announced at the latest 15 working days after the final course activity (November 14th). Between this date and 35 working days after the final course activity (December 12th), a post-exam discussion or inspection moment will be planned. This will be announced on Canvas and/or via email
| LO | Tested in component | EQ 1 | EQ 2 | EQ 3 | EQ 4 | EQ 5 | EQ 6 | EQ 7 | EQ 8 | EQ 9 | EQ 10 |
| 1 | 1, 3, 4 | x | |||||||||
| 2 | 2, 3, 4 | x | |||||||||
| 3 | 2, 3 | x | |||||||||
| 4 | 2 | x |
Table of specification: the relation between the learning outcomes of the course (see 1.3), the assessment components of the course (see 2.4) and the Exit Qualifications (EQ) of the Master’s Forensic Science (described in the Introduction in the Course Catalogue)
Any partial grade (exam, midterm, group assignment) remains valid for the next year (but expires thereafter).
Via announcements on canvas.
Students need to contact the lecturers to make an appointment.
The Math on Trial assignment is a group assignment. The evaluation is based on the group's slides (an updated version accounting for possible feedback and questions from the audience may be turned in the day after the presentations), the presentation itself, and discussions during/after the presentation.
The material of the first two theory classes and accompanying exercise classes will specifically be examined in the (individual) written midterm test in week 39.
2 Group assignment: Math on Trial
To illustrate the danger in wrongly using statistical and probabilistic reasoning, all students will study a chapter of the book Math on Trial (in groups) and prepare a joint presentation about (i) the contents of this chapter, as well as (ii) their analysis of it. Two (or three) students from the group will present their results in class. The audience is formed by students from other groups who should engage in a critical debate through questions to the presenting group.
The slide book and the presentation (including discussions) will be graded (one grade for the group).
3 The final examination
The material of the four theory classes and accompanying exercise classes will specifically be examined in the (individual) final written exam. The result of the exam must not be lower than 5.5 in order to pass the course (see Section 2.4 for details).
The 'Regulations governing fraud and plagiarism for UvA students' applies to this course. This will be monitored carefully. Upon suspicion of fraud or plagiarism the Examinations Board of the programme will be informed. For the 'Regulations governing fraud and plagiarism for UvA students' see: www.student.uva.nl
See course components.
The student must have the textbook available for use during the midterm test, the final exam and the resit. These tests/exams are open book and the student may need to consult specific sections or tables in the book.